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From Temporary to Permanent Canada’s Immigration Dilemma in 2025

Immigration law

08 Dec

Canada is grappling with a big immigration dilemma: by 2025, more than 1.2 million temporary residents will see their permits expire. Will they leave as planned, or will Canada face a spike in undocumented residents?

Canada is bracing for 1.2 million temporary residents to head out next year. It's like a revolving door on overdrive-how many people leave really depends on how many new ones show up. If the turnover’s high, we’re in for a full-on shuffle, like a game of musical chairs, but with more suitcases and fewer seats.

The country plans to allocate around 40% of its permanent resident slots to temporary residents, equating to approximately 158,000 visas in the coming year. This means nearly one-sixth of temporary residents could transition to permanent status. Some may secure a new visa or permit depending on the number of new arrivals. The remaining individuals are expected to depart before their visa expires, or they may be removed from the country.

It’s a big headache for the 1.2 million temporary resident visas set to expire next year due to the surge in refugee claims from those still hanging around. Despite some grumbling about the plan, Canada’s still on track to see hundreds of thousands of people make their exit. Looks like it’s going to be a game of "goodbye" on a massive scale.

A surprising twist in Canada's immigration story is that international students are now doubling as refugees. According to the Globe, a whopping 13.7k of this year's refugee claims (so far) come from people on study permits. That's 4.5 times the usual volume, which is basically unheard of. Canada might soon need a new category for "refugees who forgot their textbooks."

It looks like more people are choosing to make asylum claims, or refugee claims, as a way to stay in Canada. By September this year, there were 133k claims that is 38% more than last year. What's interesting is that 63.9% of these claims were made by people already in Canada, at offices within the country. Normally, about half of all claims come from inside Canada, so this big jump in inland claims is a big reason why the numbers are so high this year.

Close to 14,000 asylum applications have been submitted by international students in Canada as of 2024.  These students are making valid refugee claims, but the timing.  Well, that's raising some eyebrows. According to the government, it’s a bit suspicious. "It’s pretty obvious when someone’s been here for a year or more and suddenly decides to claim asylum, especially when nothing’s changed back home," said Immigration Minister Marc Miller. "It just doesn’t look or smell right." So, if you're claiming asylum after acing your midterms, maybe reconsider the timing.

Canada has long been regarded as a global leader in immigration, providing numerous opportunities for individuals to study, work, and settle. However, in the past two years, the country has experienced a population boom that has altered its future path.

Experts have likened this growth to the postwar baby boom, calling it one of the most significant demographic changes in Canada’s modern history. This rapid increase was driven by immigration policies that were greatly expanded after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Labour shortages and economic needs have led Canada to accept an unprecedented influx of both temporary and permanent residents. However, this growth has come with its challenges. The country’s infrastructure, particularly housing, has struggled to keep up. Rent prices have soared to record levels, with major cities like Toronto and Vancouver at the forefront.

In Toronto, the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment now surpasses $2,500 per month. At this rate, you might need to start renting out your couch just to afford the place. And it's not just the rent that's giving people a headache – public services like healthcare and transit are feeling the strain too. The TTC’s slogan could soon be: "Get on board... if you can find a seat… or a train."

The population surge has outpaced available resources, and a big part of this rapid growth is the influx of temporary residents, those on short-term work or study permits. While they have certainly given the economy a boost, their sheer numbers have exposed some not-so-hidden gaps in Canada's immigration system. It's like trying to squeeze a moose into a canoe-things are getting crowded, and the government is scrambling to find a paddle.

So, here’s the fun bit: 1.2 million temporary residents in Canada are expected to pack up and leave when their status expires in 2025 - sounds like an ambitious plan, right? But let’s be real, given Canada’s charm  and its unbeatable friendliness, the idea of voluntarily leaving could feel like walking away from a warm, cozy blanket on a cold winter day. Besides, where else can you experience the beauty of a snowfall that’s almost magical, or have a heart-to-heart with a stranger about hockey? In other words, while the clock may be ticking for these 1.2 million, whether they actually leave might just depend on how hard it is to say goodbye to those iconic Canadian winter scenes and the irresistibly kind people.