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EXPRESS ENTRY ITAS EXPECTED DECEMBER

Immigration law

01 Dec

Analyzing Express Entry draws from previous years can provide valuable insights and help us make informed estimates about the number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) likely to be issued for the rest of 2024.

If the number of ITAs issued in the rest of 2024 follows the same pattern as the average from 2021 to 2023 compared to the 2025 landing target, we could expect IRCC to issue around 3,522 ITAs through Express Entry in December.

So, how do we take a wild but hopefully educated guess at how many ITAs IRCC will dish out this year? Do we break out the crystal ball, consult the stars, or just cross our fingers and hope for the best? Let’s dive into the clues and see if we can crack the code.

IRCC issues ITAs to help meet its landing targets, which refer to when individuals officially become permanent residents. However, two key factors must be considered:

• Not all ITAs lead to landings, as some are returned.
• There’s often a delay between receiving an ITA and completing the landing process due to processing times.

The annual Immigration Levels Plan sets goals for how many people will officially become permanent residents, not how many ITAs will be issued.

Comparing yearly landing targets with ITAs issued might seem like a no-brainer, but it’s not that simple. Processing times and the whole "packing-your-life-into-suitcases" phase tend to mess with the math.

So, if you want to guesstimate the ITAs left for this year, don’t just look at this year’s targets-peek into next year’s Immigration Levels Plan instead. Think of it as reading next year’s playbook to predict this season’s moves.

YEAR	ITAs  ISSUED BETWEEN JULY TO DECEMBER OF THE PREVIOUS YEARS	ANNUAL LANDING TARGET THROUGH FEDERAL HIGH-SKILLED PATHWAYS	ITAs ISSUED AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE YEAR’S LANDINGS TARGET
2018	34,738	74,900	46.38%
2019	50,100	81,400	61.55%
2022	25,509	55,900	45.63%
2023	35,750	82,800	43.18%
2024	50,718	110,770	45.79%

 

As such, on average, the number of ITAs issued from July to December each year makes up 45.245% of the following year’s landing target. So, how many more ITAs could pop up in December? Well, if we’re lucky and the stars align, we might see a decent chunk-but we’ll have to wait and see if IRCC is feeling generous with the invites.

For 2025, IRCC has set a goal of welcoming 124,680 new permanent residents through the Express Entry system. From July to November this year, they issued 52,888 ITAs, which is 42.42% of next year’s landing target.

The forecast doesn’t account for factors that IRCC likely knows but we don’t. This estimate is just an educated guess based on the assumptions above. There’s no guarantee that IRCC’s actions this year will match past trends. They could issue a lot fewer or a lot more ITAs-basically, it’s up to IRCC to decide if they are feeling generous or playing it safe this year.

For 2025-2027, the plan divides the Federal High-Skilled category (which includes Express Entry) into two groups: "Federal Economic Priorities" and "In-Canada Focus." These two groups together make up the total number of landings/targets for Express Entry in 2025.

The "Federal Economic Priorities" group will be on the lookout for candidates with skills and experience in high-demand sectors of the Canadian economy. Basically, if you are great at what you do and can speak French, you are in.

In 2025, the eligible categories will consist of:

• Healthcare occupations.
• Trade occupations.
• French-language proficiency.

The targets for Francophone immigrants outside of Quebec will rise from 8.5% of all admissions in 2025 to 10% by 2027. The "In-Canada Focus" category, with 82,980 spots, will target candidates who are already in Canada, helping meet immigration goals without increasing the country’s population. Research shows that these individuals typically do well in Canada’s job market.

In 2025, this category will include:

• Candidates from the Canadian Experience Class (CEC).
• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates in Express Entry-aligned PNP streams.
• (possibly) candidates from the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP).
• (possibly) candidates from the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP).

According to the government's plan, we can expect many of the remaining 3,522 ITAs to go to candidates in the CEC program, PNP programs, those with strong French skills, or people. This trend is also showing up in the Express Entry draws from earlier in 2024. For instance, let’s take a look at the last 20 Express Entry draws IRCC has held since August 2024-spoiler alert: the numbers tell an interesting story with experience in healthcare or trade jobs.

DRAW TYPE	NUMBER OF DRAWS (AUGUST-DECEMBER 2024)
Canadian Experience Class	7
Provincial Nominee Program	7
French language proficiency	4
Trade occupations	1
Healthcare occupations	1

 

RRM Law can help Express Entry clients by guiding them through eligibility assessments, application preparation, and document submission. They provide support from the initial assessment of qualifications to post-ITA assistance, ensuring clients meet all requirements. Additionally, the firm offers legal advice for appeals and helps clients navigate job offers or Provincial Nominee Programs to improve their profiles.